A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
